The employment situation in the U.S. continued to show softness last month, likely sealing the deal for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting in mid-September.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 22,000 in August, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Friday morning. That was shy of economist forecasts for 75,000 and July’s 79,000 (revised from an originally reported 73,000). Alongside July’s 6,000 job upward revision, June’s number was revised lower by 27,000 to a negative 13,000 in what would have been the first negative monthly jobs print since the Covid lockdowns of 2020.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, in line with forecasts and up from July’s 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.7% year-over-year, both matching forecasts.
Financial markets reacted immediately, with bitcoin adding about $500 to $112,800 in the minutes following the report. The “it” asset of the moment, gold shot higher by more than 1% to a new record of $3,644 per ounce.
U.S. stock index futures added modestly to previous gains, the dollar weakened and the 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.11%.
50 basis point cut on the table
Though rising modestly overnight in the hours ahead of the jobs report, bitcoin had been under sizable pressure since hitting a record high above $124,000 in mid-August, falling to as low as $107,400 earlier this week. Even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell flipping from hawk to dove at his Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 22 failed to ignite anything more than a one-day rally.
Not entering the debate at all in past weeks was the idea that the Fed might cut rates by 50 basis points instead of the assumed 25. This morning’s soft numbers, however, may prompt that discussion to get started. All things being equal, easier monetary policy is assumed to be good for risk assets, bitcoin among them. If the idea of a 50 basis point move this month fails to re-ignite animal spirits in crypto, the bulls might have to reconsider their stance.
